National Security & Ecosystem Collapse

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Or label a custom / hypothetical nation

01 Trade & resource dependency

The assessment finds the UK imports 40% of its food, is reliant on South American soy for animal feed and imported palm oil, and is only partially self-sufficient in nitrogen and phosphorus fertiliser. Adjust these dials to reflect the nation's structural exposure to global food and fertiliser markets.

Food import dependency—%

Fertiliser (N & P) import reliance—%

Feed & commodity exposure (soy, palm oil, grain)—%

Domestic food self-sufficiency (offsets exposure)—%

02 Critical ecosystem exposure

The six critical ecosystem regions

Highlighted regions reflect your current selection below. Toggle a region in the list to see it light up on the map.

The probabilistic language in these judgements is explained in the source assessment, pages 3–4. Base map: Al MacDonald & Fritz Lekschas, simple-world-map (CC BY-SA 3.0).

The six GeoREI-UK regions

The assessment identifies six ecosystem regions whose collapse would drive displacement, disrupt global weather, and trigger geopolitical competition for what remains. Select which ones this nation depends on for climate stability, food, water, or trade — through hosting, downwind/downstream effects, or import reliance.

Exposure pathway strength

How tightly is the nation's own climate, water and food system coupled to the selected ecosystems (versus distant/indirect exposure)?

Coupling strength—

Domestic ecosystem intactness & buffering capacity—%

Planetary boundaries: 6 of 9 already crossed as of 2023 (Stockholm Resilience Centre) — biosphere integrity, climate change, land-use change, freshwater change, nutrient flows, novel entities.

03 Cascading security risk exposure

The assessment traces a pathway from ecosystem degradation → physical/biological impacts → human security risk → international security risk. Rate the nation's baseline exposure on each cascading channel.

Migration pressure (in or out)—

Existing political / institutional fragility—

Exposure to serious organised crime & non-state actors—

Economic sensitivity to global food/commodity prices—

Active or latent inter-state resource competition—

Adaptive investment (restoration, resilient food systems)—%

04 Exposure profile

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Composite biodiversity–security exposure index

Assessment summary

Adjust the dials above to generate a profile.

05 National security risk channels